For those hoping for some clarity in Texas polling there have actually been three polls released today.
NYT/Siena is the only live caller poll, and it has Trump leading by 4, 47-43, with support among rural white voters strong enough to outweigh Biden’s strength in urban and suburban areas and among non-white voters.
One note that may not be more than “interesting” is that Biden leads by 7 among those who have already voted, which is half the likely electorate. Expect that to be narrowed and then overcome by Republicans voting on Election Day, but lower than expected e-day turnout could throw a wrench into this. Importantly the current vote total is actually 80% of total turnout so Siena is modeling a huge increase in overall turnout including from heavily rural and republican areas. I don’t know the demographics that well, but are there enough rural white voters in Texas for that to happen? Some rural Texas counties had like 2000 voters in 2016....
Link:
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/10/26/u....co/LP92cGZCgK
Meanwhile YouGov has Trump up 5 and Data for Progress has Biden up 1. So... pick the one you like I guess? Based on the averages and the prior history my current guess is this is “close but no cigar” for Democrats in Texas, and if Biden’s internals are showing the same thing that may be why Democrats have not spent a ton of money or resources here (though Kamala Harris is making a campaign stop on Friday.)