Quote:
Originally Posted by nfotiu
What does that link prove? The only polls that have any data after the debate show Trump up.
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Quote:
Originally Posted by dino7c
You mean the D- rated poll that had Trump +3?
Because on October 3rd they had Trump up more than that
The point was that the race didn't take a dramatic shift after the oil comment (that the majority agree with)
Anyway like I said, Biden doesn't need Texas
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We're at a point that we have to be very careful about the polls and really dig into them to understand how they have come up with their numbers. For example, I just reviewed the latest data that came out showing Trump and McSally leading in Arizona, which is contrary to the past few weeks of polling. So into the details of the poll I went and sure enough, the pollster over-sampled one population and under-sampled another. Polls have to reflect the actual makeup of the populations they trying to represent, and when you over-sample one population you taint your data. You need to normalize the data and this step was not done. After normalizing the data the results changed and was more reflective of the other polls. So be careful what polls you pick, look at the data, and determine if they are reflective of the communities they are trying to represent. This is why Nate Silver rates pollsters. Some do the actual work to normalize data while others intentionally over-sample certain populations and create inconsistent data. Rassmussen and Trafalgar are terrible for over-sampling so their numbers are questionable. Susquehanna have gone this direction this cycle as well.