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Originally Posted by JohnnyB
We obviously can't know, but I wonder what the polls would have been looking like right now if not for covid. For as much harm as it is doing, in some respect I feel like the virus is the savior of American democracy.
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Hard to say. If COVID never existed, it might be a closer race, but I think the unrest from the summer has been just as big of a motivation to get more people out to vote, especially minorities.
If COVID did exist, but Trump was very successful at handling it, it probably would have been enough to get him re-elected. If it never existed and no one knew anything different, it's anyone's guess in my opinion. My guess is that something else would have blown up on him. We only ever hear about the situations that get out of control, but I am sure there are things presidents deal with that we never hear about due to national security concerns. With people as dumb as the Trump dynasty running the show, it was probably only a matter of time until some nefarious slipped through to hurt Americans.
COVID has also seemed to embolden extremists, so the long term impact, even if Trump loses, might be net loss if Biden cannot turn things around in 4 years.