Quote:
Originally Posted by Enoch Root
I agree with all those things, and don't think he is under-rated as you suggest. Certainly not by me anyway.
But we aren't talking about what Backlund has done for the past 4 or 5 years here. Nor are we talking about next season. We are talking about the 2 seasons after that, when he will be 32 and 33 years old (34 by the end of the 2nd season). And he will still be making $5.35M per. When signed, that was a great deal. It is still a great deal. Will it be a great deal in 2 years? I am not so sure.
Here are Backlund's PPG by year:
2012: 0.268
2013: 0.500
2014: 0.513
2015: 0.519
2016: 0.573
2017: 0.654
2018: 0.549
2019: 0.610
2020: 0.643
He improved every year until 2016/17 when he peaked at .654 PPG. And that is when he signed his nice 6 year, $32.1M contract.
Can he put up 0.6 PPG again this year? I expect he will.
Can he put up 0.6 PPG in the following 2 years? Sadly, it is very likely that he won't. As the points drop, the value for the contract drops. It is the way it goes with age.
So the question isn't whether we can replace Backlund NOW for $5.35M, the question is whether we can replace 32 year old, declining offence Backlund, for $5.35M.
It isn't a slight against the player. It is a simple fact that we all get older.
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Well, there is a lot more to the .643 in 2019-20
Backlund’s production last year was
First 35 games: 14 points = .4 ppg
Last 35 games: 31 points = .89 ppg
Including
Last 16 games: 22 points = 1.375 ppg
So what is Backlund capable of?
That last half of the season is a meaningful sample that doesn’t look like a guy that peaked years ago, sitting on his fat contract, and sadly unlikely to be able to muster .6 ppg
He was a damn beast down the stretch. Playing the best hockey of his career. Indisputably