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Old 10-17-2020, 02:30 PM   #151
Enoch Root
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Join Date: May 2012
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My post was in reference to ricardodw's conclusions ("Gaudreau 12 ES goals and Monahan 14 did not do as much as Mangiapane to get the PP time. If Mangiapane were to replace either one of them as a PP shooter would the Flames have a better PP?")

You are clearly very sensitive with respect to this topic. Yes, Mangiapane's 5on5 stats were solid this year. No dispute.

But jumping to the conclusion that he was the Flames' best forward 5on5, is rather premature IMO.

1) all observation, by pretty much everyone, disagrees with the conclusion (he had a great year, but no one - other than those that completely buy into these stats - think he was the best forward)
2) his line had a hot streak - let's see if they can actually repeat that before he call him our best forward
3) he had a very high shooting percentage through that hot streak

All players (and lines) have hot streaks. The problem here is that there isn't enough other data to normalize his numbers. If he puts up more periods of excellent numbers, and the data continues to support this data, then we can start to have more confidence about our conclusions.

But so far, that conclusion is not only pre-mature, but conflicts with observation.
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