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Originally Posted by Firebot
I know I have never been polled in my life, have any of you?
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Been polled four times this cycle. Once by the Trump campaign, once by Arizona Democrats, once by Trafalgar, and once by Gravis. So the majority of polling has been by the Republicans or Trump affiliated interests.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Azure
Also polls can't accurately predict voter turnout.
"Who will you vote for"
"Will you vote"
Does that person actually vote?
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While this is a true statement, it is also not telling the whole story about how voting models work. When projections are done they use what are called Turnout Tables, that are based on historical data from past elections. These help determine to what level projections are made based on projected voter turnout, which comes from polling data, registration data, and new voter registration data. Used in conjunction they can predict very accurately what is going to happen during periods of voting. What they can't predict is last second surprises or interference that may sway the feelings of voters and drive people away from the polls. A perfect example of this, an event that had a massive impact on the last cycle, James Comey's last second announcement of Clinton's emails being further investigated. Can we expect another last second outside influence that will rock the models? We'll see.
Quote:
Originally Posted by rubecube
Yep, I'm actually shocked at how badly my dad's critical-thinking and reasoning skills have declined at age 73. It's no wonder he laps up everything Fox News tells him.
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The problem is they draw in older viewers by appealing to their most base values. Then they start pouring on the propaganda and scare tactics that hit these people right in the amygdala, scaring the #### out of them and flooding their brain with cortisol and adrenaline. This is called amygdala hijacking and is how you quickly brainwash someone. Cortisol is addictive, and once hooked it changes your brain chemistry and turns you into an emotional mess. Worse, it affects your health as it prevents you from getting sleep, gives you cravings for things that are bad for you, and breaks down your immune system. So when you look at your father and see a bit of a raving loon, it is because of his brain being flooded with cortisol. Don't worry, this can all be easily reverse. Cancel his cable TV subscription and get him reading more, exercising that grey matter, and he will return to his normal self.