Quote:
Originally Posted by Weitz
Maybe. But I think that if there is any remotely smart people in the republican party you can realize that rolling out about as moderate as a candidate as you can for 2024 is probably a shoe in for victory.
So I expect a worse Trump in 2024.
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Agreed both about what they should do, and what they'll likely do.
But I also disagree that such an approach would be a shoe-in. I think the Republicans are probably screwed for 2024, either way, if Trump loses this year.
They're going to have an incredibly divisive primary cycle, with some traditional Republicans, some high profile Trump allies, and some Trump-style-outsiders all competing. If a traditional conservative (let's say Romney) wins, then some of the Trump allies are going to cry foul, and potentially at least one of them will mount an independent campaign. Not because they think they'll win, but because they're in it for personal brand-building, and Trump showed the template for branding through campaigning... he just made the mistake of actually winning. Hell, Trump (if he's still around) may even endorse such a candidate, because that lets him rail against both the Republicans and the Democrats, and the independent will just suck up to Trump in a way that the Republican nominee never could. And such an independent campaign probably peels off 10-20% of Trump supporters away from the Republicans.