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Originally Posted by Senator Clay Davis
The issue remains that Seattle went 94 yards in roughly 90 seconds, including a 4th and 10 conversion.
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Two 4th and 10 conversions. Two separate times.
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I'm also laughing at the "Well they didn't get the 2 point conversion, makes it an even stupider decision" takes, as if there wouldn't be more urgency with trying to tie versus going up 3.
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Yeah, I've heard that multiple times too, and it's not even top 5 among bad takes this morning.
Look, at the end of the day, there's an ~80% chance you make that 4th and inches. There's a ~90% chance you make the kick.
- The upside of you making the kick is that Wilson then has the ball at his own 25 with a minute left, and has to score and get a 2pt conversion and then beat you in Overtime. What are his chances of doing all of that? Maybe 20%? Maybe slightly higher, given that you're going into that overtime without Dalvin Cook and the Seahawks woke up in the second half?
- The downside of the kicking option is that the game is over right there - you lose. And it's not impossible. It's rainy, it's a high pressure situation, the defense is motivated to get to your guy and block the kick, there's a non-zero chance of Blair Walsh the sequel. It's remote, but it's not zero.
- The upside of the go-for-it option is that the game is over and Russell Wilson doesn't get to touch the ball.
- The downside of the go-for-it option is that Russell Wilson gets the ball on his own five yard line with a minute left and has to go down the field and score a touchdown. What are his odds of doing that? 30%?
So, to recap, you have a kicking option that has a 90% chance of success and if successful gives you an 75-80% chance of victory, whereas if it fails it gives you a 0% chance of victory. Then you have a go-for-it option that has an 80% chance of success and if successful gives you a 100% chance of victory, whereas if it fails you still have a 70% chance of victory.
The math here is pretty easy to do.