Quote:
Originally Posted by Huntingwhale
100% disagree wholeheartedly. The objective of an agent is to make his client as much money as possible in as short a time as possible. There are some things to consider as to why it would have been a whole lot better to sign big right now, instead of gambling (big time) that he will cash in bigger next season:
- If his plan is to have a good season then cash in bigger next season, he will be 29 when he signs next season. 28 looks a whole lot better then 29 to a GM looking to sign someone longterm.
- Hall has been injured 3/3 the past seasons. He was healthy during his Hart season. But 3 seasons in row since, massive injuries. His party is gambling big time he's going to stay healthy this entire season to cash in bigger next UFA season? To me this is by far the riskiest part of this contract; gambling he will stay healthy to be recognized as deserving a bigger contract next time. The whole point of signing big long term UFA contracts is to have that stability/financial security IF you get injured.
- If it's such a "smart" move, why does this very rarely happen with big UFAs? Are there examples of past star players going the 1 year route, only to cash in substantially larger the season after and we can all agree it was a smart move. I think Hossa is a good example of doing as such. But those are the exceptions and not the norm. Otherwise we'd be seeing it happen a whole lot more. There's a reason you sign the dotted line when a big sum is put in front of you, and not risk going the 1 year route in an attempt for something bigger next season.
- I feel like Hall left between $40-$50 million on the table doing this. If Hall goes on to have an elite season and signs a bigger contract then I will happily eat my words. But IMO this is a huge risk. Take the stability NOW.
Weird signing. Even weirder it was with Buffalo. The only positive I can think of is he knows Buffalo isn't a contender, but can pad his stats with Eichel. Come trade deadline, he'll have the chance to essentially choose his destination (his NMC a big part of that) and if he wins the cup then he can cash in. I suppose if that all comes to fruition it will be seen as an epic 4D chess move. But that's some wild-ass 4D chess moves to pull it off. |
It's rarely done because we've never seen the inexhaustible upward climb in NHL cap and revenues interrupted by an economic crisis like this. NHLers play for years to get to this point, it's the culmination of their entire career through their ELC, and then their RFA contract where they have little to no leverage; the chance to be a UFA and sign a big ticket retirement contract that forms the basis of their career earnings and in a location that they will most likely build a family. It's super important. So instead of valuing safety above all else and signing this longterm backbone contract in the middle of the most economic uncertainty in the NHL for decades, Hall did the smart thing and waited it out for another year. He'll still be a young known commodity in the league next year, and next year for signing purposes is likely only 8 months and 50ish games away. It's nothing.
We don't know what he was offered exactly vs what he will sign for next year but allow me to speculate. He was likely looking for 8 million minimum, over a 6-7 year time frame. He was able to get that for one year for the Sabres, and lets say next year he's able to sign a 8X6 with someone else. That's now 7 years of making his preferred money, and about 12 million more over the life of the contract than if some team was trying to get him cheap at a 6X8. Or, what was more likely in my mind, teams were'nt willing to give him 6-7 years term in this environment but only 4-5. Now we're talking about a 34 year old hall needing a new contract, which is a lot different than 29 or 30, that's way more of a risk to career earning than betting on yourself when you're still in your 20s. The injury risk is real but minute, the major bet is that NHL teams will be more willing to hand out money next summer, which is a bet I would personally take. It's a small risk to take to counter act being forced in to a deal that's below his market value either in money or in years, possibly for a team in a city he doesn't want to go to, in the most dysfunctional free agent market in decades.