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Old 10-09-2020, 02:11 PM   #88
SuperMatt18
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Here is Markstrom numbers over the last three seasons for reference.

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Originally Posted by SuperMatt18 View Post
For goalies you are always better off looking at the body of work for an extended period of time.

And quite frankly Markstrom's career .911 save percentage just isn't that great. It's better than what the Flames have had since Kipper but it's still risky.

Over the last three years here is how Markstrom rates in all situations for goalies with over 4000 minutes played in that time (Starter minutes - 39 qualified goalies).

SV%: .914 (18th)
GSAA: 15.56 (18th)
GSAA/60: 0.10 (18th)

HDSV%: .831 (10TH)
MDSV%: .910 (22nd)
LDSV%: .961 (24th)

So he's kind of middle of the pack among the guys that you could almost qualify as a starter over a longer time horizon. Which means it's fine to give him $5.5M but to do it for 6 or 7 years is an overpayment for sure.

Looking at the numbers the best recent UFA comparable to him would be Varlamov, who got 4 years and $5M last season.
Hopefully the A.A.V is below $6M because really this is a bit of an overpayment on term, and hopefully Markstrom can buck the aging trend.

Rumours are he's a guy that takes great care of his body, so maybe he can do it but lots of risk here due to the term IMO.

He's a top half of the league starter though, a guy you can count on for 50+ games, and hopefully last year was not the abnormal season because outside of last year he wasn't really an improvement on the short term stop gaps we've had here.
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