Quote:
Originally Posted by Senator Clay Davis
Hillary (and Comey) aren't walking through that door. Biden is boring and not all that polarizing. Steadiest race since 1996 for me, it's been very consistent since the church photo-op. Any bumps for Trump have been MOE noise and nothing more. People are just sick of the circus.
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Agreed. I have a hard time believing any likely voter didn’t make their mind up a year ago. Add to that some early signs that turnout is up over 2016 and you have the signs of a blowout.
We should keep in mind that Clinton led by around 5.5-6% at this point (going by memory) and the race tightened substantially to around 3% on the margin by Election Day so there is still a little bit of time—but Trump has not shown any signs of pivoting toward running as an incumbent or any understanding of how that is different from running as a novel outsider. And nearly 4 million people have already voted.
One reason the Pennsylvania result is so devastating is the electoral math: if Trump loses Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin (and there is good reason to think all three will fall in the same general direction) then he has no path to victory. He can win Florida, North Carolina, Texas, Georgia, Iowa and Ohio and lose the election.
There is a reason the GOP is mobilizing for legal challenges in Pennsylvania: they know it’s a must win state. But Trump has to keep it close for those challenges to have a hope.