Quote:
Originally Posted by octothorp
Yeah, I'm coming around to that now. I did think there was the chance of a 'return to the flock' moment following the first debate if Trump had comported himself very differently, but it's now hard to see a path where Trump is within a few points of Biden in swing state polls by election day. Always the chance of a massive polling miss, but even that seems far less likely with pollsters trying to correct their 2016 errors.
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I think what is really hilarious is Trump could actually increase his share of minority vote this time and lose badly even still. Biden is bringing home the Northern white voters that Hillary lost, and he's also put a big dent into Trump's lead with elderly voters as well. I think it cannot be undersold that Trump's inability to run as a "Vote for me and see what happens" candidate hurts him dearly. We see what happens now, and it's catastrophic mismanagement.