Behind a paywall, but Jon Willis wrote an article in the Athletic titled Buyer Beware OEL. It was interesting because he clearly went into the writing with many of the misgivings that we are seeing here.
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I’m surprised to write this – it isn’t the outcome I expected when I started collecting data – but I’ve come to like the idea of betting on Ekman-Larsson. The best-case scenario is excellent, and even the median outcome works, especially given the structure of his contract.
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He does a lot of comparables, from best to worst, and having the contract front loaded makes the last two years tradable/buyoutable. It's an interesting read, and takes away some of the doom and gloom.
https://theathletic.com/2103779/2020...-he-ages-well/