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Old 09-24-2020, 11:46 AM   #4145
rubecube
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Quote:
Originally Posted by New Era View Post
Data doesn't support the claim made by the author of your article (not surprising considering he's from Reason.com).
Ummm...well the data doesn't come from the author. It comes from three different surveys, but full marks for the ad hominem response.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/...-the-election/

Quote:
First, the political scientist Brian Schaffner analyzed the Cooperative Congressional Election Study, which was conducted by YouGov and interviewed 64,600 Americans in October-November 2016. In that survey, Schaffner found that 12 percent of people who voted in the primary and reported voting for Sanders also voted in November and reported voting for Trump.

Schaffner examined only voters whose turnout in the primary and general election could be validated using voter file data. This excludes people who said they voted but actually did not — although it also excludes people who voted in caucuses or party-run primaries, for which validated turnout data are not as readily available.

Second, the same 12 percent figure emerges in the 2016 VOTER Survey, which was also conducted by YouGov and overseen by the Democracy Fund Voter Study Group (of which I am research director). In 2016, this survey interviewed 8,000 respondents in July, when they were asked their primary vote preference, and then in December, when they were asked their general election preference. This has the advantage of measuring primary preference closer to the primaries themselves and then tracking people over time. But their turnout in both elections has not been validated as of yet.

The third survey is the RAND Presidential Election Panel Survey, which interviewed the same group of about 3,000 Americans six times during the campaign. Again, this survey has the advantage of tracking voters over time, but nobody’s turnout has been validated. Among voters who reported supporting Sanders as of March 2016, 6 percent then reported voting for Trump in November.

Another useful comparison is to 2008, when the question was whether Clinton supporters would vote for Barack Obama or John McCain (R-Ariz.) Based on data from the 2008 Cooperative Campaign Analysis Project, a YouGov survey that also interviewed respondents multiple times during the campaign, 24 percent of people who supported Clinton in the primary as of March 2008 then reported voting for McCain in the general election.
Quote:
The data is there. The Bernie Bros get a big heaping of the responsibility for Trump being in office. Own it.

The data shows that Bernie Bros were actually less likely to vote for the other candidate than Hillary supporters were in previous elections, and pretty much on par with the amount of Rubio supporters who voted for Hillary instead of Trump. So to say their votes were some sort of abnormal temper tantrum not historically seen among other disaffected primary voters is a complete fabrication.

Again though, the DNC would much rather look for any sore loser excuse they can than actually perform any sort of introspective analysis.
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