I could definitely see Biden declaring that if Trump fills the seat, then he will move to expand the supreme court, but if Trump and McConnell respect the precedent set in 2016 and do not fill the seat, he'll keep the numbers where they are.
So the risk for Republicans at that point is take the slim majority in the court they'd already have, and keep it for several more years probably, or call Biden's bluff, and risk Biden winning the election, and expanding the court and handing the Republicans at least 4 and maybe 8 or more years of a minority on the court.
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