Quote:
Originally Posted by New Era
Or we can take the opposite view of that polling error and that would shift Georgia and Texas (not on the list) as in Biden's column and its a massive blow out. That is why I tend to keep polling errors out of the mix as they allow for the building of false narratives. The polling from the last election was quite accurate, so I'm still going to trust the polls, especially state-by-state.
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Depends what conclusion you want to draw from the state by state data.
If the conclusion is somewhere around the 538 probabilities of Biden winning are somewhere in the 75% ball park then yeah that’s fair. If the conclusion is a 99% chance of Bide winning then I don’t think that is supported by data.
My point is that we are still a normal polling error away from Trump winning.