Continuing on with the weekly polling data update here are the trends.
We will acknowledge that Trump is a clear winner in Alaska (3), Idaho (4), Montana (3), Wyoming (3), Utah (6), North Dakota (3), South Dakota (3), Nebraska (5), Kansas (6) Oklahoma (7), Iowa (6), Missouri (10), Arkansas (6), Louisiana (8), Mississippi (6), Tennessee (11), Kentucky (8), Indiana (11) and West Virginia (5).
Trump has Texas (38) and South Carolina (9) leaning his way.
Trump = 170 electoral college votes.
We will also acknowledge that Biden is a clear winner in California (55), Oregon (5), Washington (12), Illinois (20), New York (29), Massachusetts (11), Rhode Island (4), Connecticut (7), New Jersey (14), Delaware (3), Hawaii (4), Maryland (10) and DC (3).
Biden has Nevada (6), New Mexico (5), Colorado (9), Minnesota (10), and Maine (4) leaning his way.
Biden = 220 electoral college votes.
This leaves the follow as battleground states. Data from Real Clear Politics averages (trend indicates riser).
Arizona (11) - Biden +5.7 (trend Biden)
Wisconsin (10) - Biden +6.7 (trend Biden +.2)
Michigan (16) - Biden +4.2 (flat)
Ohio (18) - Biden +2.4 (flat)
Pennsylvania (20) - Biden +4.3 (flat)
Virginia (13) - Biden +14.0 (trend Biden +1.5)
North Carolina (15) - Biden +0.9 (Biden +.1)
Georgia (16) - Trump +1.3 (flat)
Florida (29) - Biden +1.6 (trend Biden +.4)
Electoral College Projection
Trump (encumbent) - 186 vs Biden - 352
We'll also add some important Senate races as they provide interesting context to possible swings in given states and should help normalize expectations from some of the polling.
Arizona - Kelly (D) vs McSally (R)* - Kelly +7.0
North Carolina - Cunningham (D) vs Tillis (R)* - Cunninghan +3.3
Michigan - Peters (D)* vs James (R) - Peters +3.5
Maine - Gideon (D) vs Collins (R)* - Gideon +4.5
Iowa - Greenfield (D) vs Ernst (R)* - Greenfield +0.3
Montana - Bullock (D) vs Daines (R)* - Daines +2.0
Colorado - Hickenlooper (D) vs Gardner (R)* - Hickenlooper +5.0
Minnesota - Smith (D)* vs Lewis (R) - Smith +8.7
Georgia - Ossoff (D) vs Perdue (R)* - Perdue +4.3
Alabama - Jones (D)* vs Tuberville (R) - Tuberville +8.0
Texas - Hegar (D) vs Cornyn (R)* - Cornyn +9.0
Senate projection - Republican 49 vs Democrat - 51
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