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Originally Posted by mikephoen
Did their 99% prediction get 'destroyed' though? That still leaves a 1% chance. Just because we have the unfortunate luck to live in the universe where the 1% chance came through, doesn't mean the 99% prediction was wrong.
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I think it got destroyed in terms of not only being wrong, but with some pollsters confirming afterwards that that there were polling problems that had resulted in missing in the same direction in many states, exactly what 538's model was designed to pick up, and which their model did not.
Plus, HPP didn't write something like, 'Our model shows that a Clinton victory is extremely likely, but a 1% chance is still a chance." Instead, their editorial ended with something like "Relax, Hillary's got this." The hubris of that statement removes their ability to hide behind that 1% chance, IMO.