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Originally Posted by photon
Yeah I'm the same. 69% chance for Biden in Florida doesn't seem right.
The part about education level changing the polling was interesting and one of the reasons the polls might be more accurate. The much lower number of undecideds has been talked about for a while now too.
I like how the update talks about the "unilateral disarmament" in the ground operations. Even just the general campaigning. I really wonder if that's going to result in a big polling error in the end, or if the negative enthusiasm will make up for that.
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So Nate Silver has apparently started a twitter war with Bitecofer on this, calling it “bad math”. He came across a little nasty about it, but the issue is her model ignores the fact that polling errors are not independent events but correlated.
I’m not smart enough to weigh into the math debate. What I liked was her theory that vote preferences are not particularly elastic, and haven’t been for a few years. That “feels” right to me, based on my hunch and nothing else. If it’s true, movement in the polls is mostly statistical noise and this cake has been baked for a while.