Quote:
Originally Posted by troutman
Rachel Bitecofer has updated her 2020 predictions for September. It is a long piece with detailed appendixes. I will try to highlight some sections when I have time to read it all, and I would like to hear what Iowa, Photon, New Era etc. think about her predictions.
She is very bullish now on a Biden win (99.5%) and the Dems winning the Senate (91.9%). I am somewhat optimistic, but not as enthusiastic as this.
The More Things Change, the More They Stay the Same
That Said, The Introduction of a Revised Negative Partisanship Model Spices Things Up Considerably!
https://www.niskanencenter.org/bitec...tember-update/ |
Great find. Really interesting analysis.
I think her hypothesis is very smart and we shall see how right she is in November. Intuitively, her comment that voter preferences now are relatively “inelastic” seems right to me, and I agree with the comment that this reflects a democracy in crisis.