I think his best chance of getting elected is if Nenshi doesn't run and a group of rational adults run for mayor and split the vote, while Farkas shores up the angry idiot vote. That's basically how he got elected in the first place.
Only Ray Jones and DCU were elected with a lower percentage of the vote in their wards than Farkas and they both were running against a large number of opponents who split the vote (DCU had 5 opponents who received more than 10% of the vote but none over 17%).
If one of the people Farkas was running against had dropped out and thrown her support behind the other one, he would have lost.
His worst chance is to face one strong opponent. His best chance is to face multiple strong opponents.
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