Calgarypuck Forums - The Unofficial Calgary Flames Fan Community - View Single Post - Value of Oliver Ekman-Larsson to Calgary

Calgary4LIfe · 09-11-2020, 12:25 PM

I wouldn't take OEL if Arizona was throwing in the first round pick.

That sounds a bit harsh to the OP, but 7 years @8.25 million for a player that is in need of a 'change of scenery', onto a team that is the strongest at LW and LD, seems like an unnecessary HUGE risk to me.

Best case scenario: OEL returns to form, and lives up to his 8.25 deal for 4 seasons and then the decline will inevitably happen at 33/34 or so. How much he starts declining is anyone's guess.

Middle case scenario: No change. OEL just continues to decline, and is a 2nd/3rd pairing (on the Flames - and assuming Giordano moves, which I doubt). Hanifin is BETTER than OEL right now - more offence too. Doubt he pushes Hanifin down to the third pairing. Giordano is definitely better, even with his 'off' season. Maybe Giordano bounces back, maybe not, but he is not worse than OEL right now.

Worst case: Sometimes a 'change of scenery' happens, and the player actually gets worse? Crazy, right?

What a huge and unnecessary risk. This could be an absolutely crippling move for the Flames to take on that could impede any hope to building an actual team capable of winning the cup.

Lucic's deal is somewhat crippling right now - the Flames are forced to replace Brodie with a cheap defencemen in order to sign Hall, or not sign Hall, still downgrade from Brodie and try to patch up different holes on this roster.

I don't mind paying superstars their money - that's fine with me. I don't think McDavid's contract is crippling at all to building a contender. However, paying for depth or drastically under-performing players is, and OEL is headed in that direction for SEVEN more seasons at 8.25. That's too huge a risk.

So, I wouldn't want the Flames to take on that deal even if Arizona threw-in their 1st round pick. Too great of a risk. You would be hoping that OEL returns to form and stays that way for the majority of his deal, and I think you can't legitimately expect that. To pry any assets for taking the gamble will probably not come from a team that is fairly strong already on the left side.

Arizona better be looking at teams like Edmonton with weak D, or other teams in need of a LD and who also have a 'change of scenery' type player for them to add to their package, which should be a 'decent' package probably involving a first. I just don't see how this makes any sense at all for Calgary in taking this unnecessary risk.

I would much rather continue having Lucic and Ryan on this team with their current deals, than getting OEL on that deal. Next season Ryan is gone, and Lucic 3 seasons from now. They are both overpaid, but they are both filling holes on the roster, and having them both here right now is making it difficult for Calgary to add to the core in any meaningful way. OEL wouldn't really be upgrading anything, much less filling a hole. It just doesn't make sense in any way to gamble with that deal, so I would be looking at OEL as a straight dump that MIGHT work out and be as good as Hanifin. Right now, keeping all the personnel on the Flames, he is starting on the third pairing (Giordano, Hanifin) and taking away Valimaki's development.

There is one positive, however... you don't need to worry about protecting him in the expansion draft.

09-11-2020, 12:25 PM	#40
Calgary4LIfe Franchise Player Join Date: Jun 2010 Exp:	I wouldn't take OEL if Arizona was throwing in the first round pick. That sounds a bit harsh to the OP, but 7 years @8.25 million for a player that is in need of a 'change of scenery', onto a team that is the strongest at LW and LD, seems like an unnecessary HUGE risk to me. Best case scenario: OEL returns to form, and lives up to his 8.25 deal for 4 seasons and then the decline will inevitably happen at 33/34 or so. How much he starts declining is anyone's guess. Middle case scenario: No change. OEL just continues to decline, and is a 2nd/3rd pairing (on the Flames - and assuming Giordano moves, which I doubt). Hanifin is BETTER than OEL right now - more offence too. Doubt he pushes Hanifin down to the third pairing. Giordano is definitely better, even with his 'off' season. Maybe Giordano bounces back, maybe not, but he is not worse than OEL right now. Worst case: Sometimes a 'change of scenery' happens, and the player actually gets worse? Crazy, right? What a huge and unnecessary risk. This could be an absolutely crippling move for the Flames to take on that could impede any hope to building an actual team capable of winning the cup. Lucic's deal is somewhat crippling right now - the Flames are forced to replace Brodie with a cheap defencemen in order to sign Hall, or not sign Hall, still downgrade from Brodie and try to patch up different holes on this roster. I don't mind paying superstars their money - that's fine with me. I don't think McDavid's contract is crippling at all to building a contender. However, paying for depth or drastically under-performing players is, and OEL is headed in that direction for SEVEN more seasons at 8.25. That's too huge a risk. So, I wouldn't want the Flames to take on that deal even if Arizona threw-in their 1st round pick. Too great of a risk. You would be hoping that OEL returns to form and stays that way for the majority of his deal, and I think you can't legitimately expect that. To pry any assets for taking the gamble will probably not come from a team that is fairly strong already on the left side. Arizona better be looking at teams like Edmonton with weak D, or other teams in need of a LD and who also have a 'change of scenery' type player for them to add to their package, which should be a 'decent' package probably involving a first. I just don't see how this makes any sense at all for Calgary in taking this unnecessary risk. I would much rather continue having Lucic and Ryan on this team with their current deals, than getting OEL on that deal. Next season Ryan is gone, and Lucic 3 seasons from now. They are both overpaid, but they are both filling holes on the roster, and having them both here right now is making it difficult for Calgary to add to the core in any meaningful way. OEL wouldn't really be upgrading anything, much less filling a hole. It just doesn't make sense in any way to gamble with that deal, so I would be looking at OEL as a straight dump that MIGHT work out and be as good as Hanifin. Right now, keeping all the personnel on the Flames, he is starting on the third pairing (Giordano, Hanifin) and taking away Valimaki's development. There is one positive, however... you don't need to worry about protecting him in the expansion draft.