Quote:
Originally Posted by troutman
Thanks for doing the work on this. I'm very nervous about North Carolina, Ohio and Florida going for Biden, and a little nervous about Pennsylvania.
On the other hand, some say Texas is seriously in play.
|
Here's the thing on that. Trump won those states in 2016. They are already part of the math he needs to repeat. The fact that Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania are in Biden's column right now means he loses the entire firewall he had. Even moving all three of NC, OH, & FL into Trump's column, he still loses 290 to 248. The math does not appear to be there at the moment, and that is even giving Trump all the advantage and not recognizing the same spread in Ohio is not that much different than the lead Trump has in Texas (+3.5) or South Carolina (+3.5). Those two states are more of a battleground than Arizona, Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennsylvania, or
Virginia right now. The only reason I didn't include them was because they have traditionally gone red and stayed red.