Originally Posted by New Era
Polling can be confusing for most people. They look at the national poll and think that is how the election is going to go. The only thing that matters is the electoral college and how the individual state polling is looking. With that in mind I'll add some data to Kootney's stuff that focuses on the electoral college polling and the possible outcome.
We will acknowledge that Trump is a clear winner in Alaska (3), Idaho (4), Montana (3), Wyoming (3), Utah (6), North Dakota (3), South Dakota (3), Nebraska (5), Kansas (6) Oklahoma (7), Iowa (6), Missouri (10), Arkansas (6), Louisiana (8), Mississippi (6), Tennessee (11), Kentucky (8), Indiana (11) and West Virginia (5).
Trump has Texas (38) and South Carolina (9) leaning his way.
Trump = 170 electoral college votes.
We will also acknowledge that Biden is a clear winner in California (55), Oregon (5), Washington (12), Illinois (20), New York (29), Massachusetts (11), Rhode Island (4), Connecticut (7), New Jersey (14), Delaware (3), Hawaii (4), Maryland (10) and DC (3).
Biden has Nevada (6), New Mexico (5), Colorado (9), Minnesota (10), and Maine (4) leaning his way.
Biden = 220 electoral college votes.
This leaves the follow as battleground states. Data from Real Clear Politics averages (trend indicates riser).
Arizona (11) - Biden +5.7 (trend Biden)
Wisconsin (10) - Biden +6.5 (trend Biden)
Michigan (16) - Biden +4.2 (trend Biden)
Ohio (18) - Biden +2.4 (trend Biden)
Pennsylvania (20) - Biden +4.3 (trend Biden)
Virginia (13) - Biden +12.5 (trend Biden)
North Carolina (15) - Biden +0.8 (toss up)
Georgia (16) - Trump +1.3 (trend Trump)
Florida (29) - Biden +1.2 (trend Trump)
Electoral College Projection
Trump (encumbent) - 186 vs Biden - 334
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