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Originally Posted by White Out 403
538 moved up Biden to 74, Trump down to 26.
Even if it moves more to 75-25, that's still a 1 in 4 chance of the orange hair ####### winning. Which is horrifying.
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Part of it is 538 using a regression to the mean to anticipate the race tightening as it goes towards November. So comparing this to Hillary on Election Day being a 3/4 is not quite a fair comparison. If you look at the polling error required for Trumo to win the election its a lot larger than it was for Hillary.
A good read on the Methodology from August at 538 where when they first release their forecast they said
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In 2016, the reason Trump had a pretty decent chance in our final forecast was mostly just because the polls were fairly close (despite the media narrative to the contrary), close enough that even a modest-sized polling error in the right group of states could be enough to give Trump a victory in the Electoral College.
The uncertainty in our current 2020 forecast, conversely, stems mostly from the fact that there’s still a long way to go until the election. Take what happens if we lie to our model and tell it that the election is going to be held today. It spits out that Biden has a 93 percent chance of winning. In other words, a Trump victory would require a much bigger polling error than what we saw in 2016.
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So if as we see Biden’s polling hold steady from here until Election Day then you would see that % go up significantly. So when we see the 538 model slowly tick up towards Election Day that’s a sign of Biden’s popularity holding. If Biden still only has a 3/4 chance on Election Day he has lost support.
https://fivethirtyeight.com/features...unt-trump-out/
The risk right now is that things change in the race rather than current level of Biden support.