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Originally Posted by Itse
I don't think anyone is counting on Biden being healthy enough to run in four years. He's barely healthy enough to be a credible candidate now. Trump was already the oldest president ever to be elected for first term, and he was 70. Biden is about to be 78.
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This all makes sense, and I could certainly
see him not seeking re-election, but don't count out the desire to win and the perceived impact of being an incumbent president. Trump is the exception to every political rule, but one such rule is that if you're running against an incumbent, you're running uphill. So if things are actually looking okay - i.e. his approval rating is solid - I would expect him to seek a second term. Not written in stone, but if I were to bet on one outcome or the other, that's what I'd bet on.
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I also really doubt Harris is in the longterm plans for Democrats.
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This, I don't agree with. I'm sure there will be a nomination process like this one but if you've been the VP, unless the administration you were in is deeply unpopular, you're the presumptive nominee next time around if you want to run. Harris clearly wants it. So, again, unless something goes very wrong for the Democrats, she's almost certainly their next presidential candidate, whether it's in 4 years or 8.