Quote:
Originally Posted by Azure
This is why I'm asking you. Your coverage in most of the elections in regards to polling has always been interesting. I never paid much attention in 2016; in fact I remember logging in later in the evening and seeing that Trump had won and was completely shocked. Big reason that I never paid attention was because I actually thought Clinton had it in the bag, and spent too much time listening to what media said.
Seems the bigger issue is like you said the interpretation of the polls. And how the media covers the election in general.
https://fivethirtyeight.com/features...story-of-2016/ |
Since we are on the subject (or, I suppose, WERE on the subject a few hours ago... I’m slow) there were two new polls of Wisconsin released yesterday, one from GOP-affiliated pollster Rasmussen Reports and one from Morning Consult.
Both showed a similar picture: Biden ahead by single digits but polling over 50%.
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/
These are pretty similar to where others have had the race—so
nothing too surprising. The vote intention numbers track very closely with the Approve/Disapprove numbers for the President, which is consistent with this being a “referendum” election rather than a “choice” election.
The other notable thing is that these are the 5th and 6th polls of Wisconsin voters. In 2016 there were only 4. We know there will be at least one more: I believe Marquette University will be releasing another in September. That will be an interesting one as in August MU had Biden ahead by just 5, and polling under 50 (49-44) with 6% still undecided.