[Regorium]

Kind of a "hot take", but I think the blueprint is that you have to basically build assets until you get a true superstar. While on the hunt for this elusive superstar, you do need the competent management identified in the OP to keep building assets, drafting/developing well, not signing horrible UFAs and not throwing 12M RFA contracts out like they're candy.

I think once you get your superstar, then the rest starts to fall into place. Sometimes this takes a long time (ie. Phoenix or Buffalo), or sometimes you suddenly get a breakout superstar. But you need to have as many shots as possible at these types of players to really build a long term contender. Whether you want to try to find a gem in the rough in the latter part of the first round (like a Getzlaf or Barzal) or find ways to draft higher, I don't think anything else matters until you find the singular core piece that can anchor the entire roster.

I'll be honest, I was definitely rooting for losses in the play-in based on my philosophy and my current belief that we don't have a superstar (tbf others may disagree). 12.5% chance at #1 and a guaranteed pick in the low teens is way better than a play-in victory into a high teens pick in terms of building a long term contender with the Flames' current state.