[Iowa_Flames_Fan]

Originally Posted by Azure

Do you honestly trust the polling after the debacle that was 2016?

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com...tion-forecast/

71.4% chance of Clinton winning. 538 seems to have the best approach as well.

I do. Firstly the 538 numbers you cite above are projections of chance of winning, not vote share. And anyone who plays poker knows there is a WORLD of difference between a 30% chance and an 8% chance. For what it’s worth 538 gave Trump a higher chance of winning than just about anybody else (and that’s true in 2020 too).

I’ve said this before but people really need to stop saying the polls were “wrong” in 2016. With the exception of a measurable polling “error” in Wisconsin, the aggregate polling averages actually provided a very accurate picture of what happened. The “error” was pundits not catching the fact that there were very few high quality polls in certain swing states (most notably Michigan and Wisconsin) and assuming that voter preferences in those states would follow the national popular vote. As we know, that isn’t what happened.

Pollsters didn’t get 2016 wrong. Poll WATCHERS did. There are important lessons to be learned from 2016 but “don’t trust polls” just... isn’t one of them.