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Originally Posted by White Out 403
If Biden wins Texas, he will have already won elsewhere, so I doubt they will put a lot of money into that state. 538's explanation of likely tipping point states does a much better job explaining this but, the Dems are more likely to pour money into WI MN FL and PA for example
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Intuitively that seems right, and I suspect that is exactly what they will do.
As a counterpoint though, one thing to consider is that Trump’s “base” is non-college educated white voters—one of the reasons he outperformed expectations in places like Wisconsin and Michigan is that those states have a LOT of those voters, especially in rural areas. Further evidence for that can be found in Iowa, which is normally a bellwether but went for Trump by high single digits in 2016 and I’m not even sure the Democrats are going to buy ads there in 2020. Trump narrowly lost Minnesota and the GOP thinks they can flip it this year.
Now what makes Iowa, Wisconsin, and Minnesota different from other “swing” states? One difference is those states have, in relative terms, a LOT of white people. Iowa is 92% white, and is the second whitest true swing state (second only to New Hampshire. Minnesota is not far behind at just over 90%. For comparison, non-Hispanic whites make up about 59% of the US population as a whole.
Meanwhile, non-Hispanic whites make up just 50.5% of the population of New Mexico, which is maybe why Trump is so far behind there. Arizona (where Trump has trailed in recent polls and reportedly has stopped spending money) is about 70% white.
In Texas, traditionally a deep red state, non Hispanic whites are a little over 60% of the population. That’s not to say Texans are not conservative or not (by and large Republicans. It’s just that many conservative Texans are actually not in that core “Trump base” of non-college educated white voters. And the state has slowly been trending purple as its demographics increasingly start to resemble New Mexico.
None of that is to suggest Texas is winnable now but the recent polls are further evidence that at some point we will see significant democratic inroads into the Sun Belt. At the same time, we could see some traditionally democratic midwestern states (like Wisconsin and Michigan) move into the Republican column, but give the number of EVs in Texas I think Democrats would make that trade every day.
With that said you are probably right. The “smart” approach is to focus on the states that the Democrats lost but needed to win in 2016 and I expect that’s what Biden will do.