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Iowa_Flames_Fan · 09-06-2020, 08:56 PM

Came across a new (to me, I’m sure it’s been around a while) polling aggregator/projection model from the Economist:
https://projects.economist.com/us-20...cast/president

I’m not smart enough to figure out whether this projection (currently showing Biden at 84% to win) is better or worse than the 538 model that has Biden at 70% or so. Nor do I know how we would ever know that....

But I like it because it lists the most recent polls included in the model right below the updated projection.

And nationally it looks like the conventions (perhaps not surprisingly) have not moved the needle. The best result in a national poll for Trump is the Harvard/Harris poll which (with learners included) shows Biden ahead 53-47.

My only slight quibble is I don’t see state level polls here. So you can find those here, along with the USC/Dornsife poll that the Economist isn’t using (likely because it is so different from the others methodologically)

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/

Some state level notes:
1. YouGov and Morning Consult both have Biden up 50-44 in Wisconsin.
2. Biden is WAY ahead in New Mexico, which is not a huge surprise. NM has been trending blue for years and hasn’t been a true swing state in a while.
3. More strange polls out of Texas showing a very close race there, with Trump ahead by only two and polling under 50%. Makes you wonder when the Democrats will take a risk and spend some money here, though it’s a major risk to do so given how huge the state is, and the history of “close, but no cigar” results for Democrats there.

09-06-2020, 08:56 PM	#3232
Iowa_Flames_Fan Referee Join Date: Jan 2005 Location: Over the hill Exp:	Came across a new (to me, I’m sure it’s been around a while) polling aggregator/projection model from the Economist: https://projects.economist.com/us-20...cast/president I’m not smart enough to figure out whether this projection (currently showing Biden at 84% to win) is better or worse than the 538 model that has Biden at 70% or so. Nor do I know how we would ever know that.... But I like it because it lists the most recent polls included in the model right below the updated projection. And nationally it looks like the conventions (perhaps not surprisingly) have not moved the needle. The best result in a national poll for Trump is the Harvard/Harris poll which (with learners included) shows Biden ahead 53-47. My only slight quibble is I don’t see state level polls here. So you can find those here, along with the USC/Dornsife poll that the Economist isn’t using (likely because it is so different from the others methodologically) https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/ Some state level notes: 1. YouGov and Morning Consult both have Biden up 50-44 in Wisconsin. 2. Biden is WAY ahead in New Mexico, which is not a huge surprise. NM has been trending blue for years and hasn’t been a true swing state in a while. 3. More strange polls out of Texas showing a very close race there, with Trump ahead by only two and polling under 50%. Makes you wonder when the Democrats will take a risk and spend some money here, though it’s a major risk to do so given how huge the state is, and the history of “close, but no cigar” results for Democrats there.