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Originally Posted by Hackey
I disagree. You're right you need players contributing on ELC's but that's why the window is small. Right now is the Avalanches best window. It will only become harder and harder to get better as Makar, Landeskog, Mackinnon all start to get paid what they deserve.
It will be harder to surround them with a well-rounded team. They are on bargain contracts currently and that would give their team the greatest chance at success. Next year is their year as they have everyone signed and cap space. The following year when Makar and Landeskog get huge raises, and they have to start planning to pay Mackinnon the largest contract in NHL history, it's going to be difficult to keep that roster together. I'm not saying their window will close but it likely will never be more open than next year and it will start to get increasingly more difficult quick.
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This may or may not be the case. Is their window more open with Makar as a Sophomore or is it more open if he's a scott neidermayer/brian leetch tier elite defender ages 23-32?
This may be their most open window in terms of cap space, but unused capspace suggests non-capitalized talent space.
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11 picks for the leafs doesn't mean much unless you hit on someone who can jump in and make an impact fast. Odds are most of those guys never become impact players and don't really move the needle much more than what they have now.
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See, that wont play out for several years. The picks they've made in the preceding 4 years are what's going to pay off in the next 1-3 years. According to bingo's numbers, the leafs have made some of the most draft picks in the league over the last 5 years. They might have an entire draft that's a dud, but it's difficult to do that over multiple drafts frankly.
Even the Flames manage to find a diamond every now and again. Look at the difference adding Mangiapane to the lineup has made for Calgary to see a local example of what i'm talking about.
Look at Dallas' depth compared to that of the Flames to see that drafting doesn't just benefit you at the top of the lineup. Their 4th line blew calgary's out of the water, and their most expensive 4th line player was a free agent signing at 2.4. Dickinson and Faksa may not have delivered as 'First round draft picks", but having cost controlled, team controlled players through your lineup extends big time cap savings. The Flames fourth line has derek ryan at 3.25 and two PTOs because the Flames literally have no one in the system capable of stepping into that role to do that job. You can pay andrew cogliano 3.25 to play 3rd and 4th line minutes if you've got roope hintz and gurianov giving you 2nd/3rd line minutes for a combined 1.7m.
You dont need to always draft 40 goal scorers, drafting a Kulak to play bottom pairing minutes for you at 8-900k is worth it in order to avoid dealing 4th round picks for guys like fantenberg and forbort.
You don't need to hit on 11 picks, either, you need to hit on one or two. And considering the leafs core group is largely assembled, they don't need to be home run picks either, they just need to be drafting middle six players and #3-8 level defenders which are easier to come by.
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I'm not saying paying big dollars to your top players is the problem. It's inevitable and you need star players to be elite. But the fact that players make huge dollars in a short period of time makes it very difficult to keep a team together. When I refer to a teams window I guess I more so mean their window with the greatest probability. For the Avs I see that as next year. After that they likely will have many tough decisions moving forward.
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Good teams don't prioritize keeping a team together, they prioritize keeping a working core group together.
That means trading guys like Kapanen for a 1st round pick, or letting Alzner walk away, or trading Phillip Grubauer and a buyout cap hit for a 2nd round pick to the Avs.
Tough decisions get a lot easier when you have guys ready to possibly step in and replace them. Like my example with Nick Robertson on the leafs, they essentially have a prospect good enough to play but no roster spot. So they moved Kapanen, got a 1st for him, and now have a roster spot for an ELC player who is tracking to be pretty incredible.
When you have great players, not good but great, they can carry your franchise through 10-15 years of turmoil and keep you at or near the top of the league. A 2nd round pick the bruins made in 2003 is still driving that roster.
A team's window exists for however long they can go suitably plugging holes in the lineup with drafted players instead of free agents, and periodically that means trading away good players for picks and prospects to restart that cycle.
The Avs might very well screw it up by trading away valuable picks and signing bad contracts, but it doesn't
have to be that way and the Avs don't appear to be susceptible to that based on how they've built the team thus far.
Considering colorado made 5 picks in the first 3 rounds last draft, including 4th overall, it's likely that in 2-4 years time they'll have at least one legitimate prospect graduating into their lineup that will be giving them top level contributions for bargain basement prices.