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Originally Posted by CroFlames
Were you living under a rock in 2016? Everyone thought the election was a mere formality and it would simply be a passing of the torch from Obama to Hillary. Even Trump thought so, I guarantee it. The polls reflected that.
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No, the polls didn't reflect that. The electoral college had the race close and even the national polls had it close. Clinton was projected to win by 2.1 points, and that was accurate in the popular vote. Unfortunately the electoral college was a toss up in many swing states, which is where predictions should really focus. This is why American politics is so hard for Canadians to understand, the popular vote and polling is misleading. You have to dig into the data to make a projection and understand the confounding nature of the other party candidates in the binary polling data. What was unexpected was the "undecided" statistic would break almost exclusively to Trump in three swing states. This outcome was so statistically small it raised a lot of eyebrows from those who provide oversight in relation to elections. But it was consistent with some models and outcomes.
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2020 might feel like Biden will mop the floor with Trump, but guess what? Nothing is certain.
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That is what Trump wants you to believe. He wants you to believe that people will lie and not tell pollsters accurate information. He wants you to believe that the system is not telling the truth so he can then claim the results of the election are bogus. The fact this stuff is repeated is concerning and means his message is resonating with the public and consumers are buying it. Our democracy is dying before our eyes because people are ignorant and won't challenge a damn thing they are told.