Quote:
Originally Posted by Jiri Hrdina
You are missing the most important thing you are trying to accomplish which is to maintain or grow the value of the asset.
3 outcomes
1. He walks for nothing
2. He is signed to a risky long-term deal
3. He is traded for a return
Depending on what you can get for him I would strongly suggest the third outcome in the best one for this organization. And if you agree with that it is reasonable to suggest that the time to maximize that return is now to avoid several risk factors that will erode the player's value further
- restrictive NTC kicking in
- less term on the very affordable contract
- continued degradation in the player's value due to declining or continued poor play.
The first two are certainties. Those are things that are going to happen. The last one is an unknown. The only unknown that could improve the players value as an asset is improved play.
So balance all the risk factors, and to me you conclude two things
1. The best outcome is to trade the player
2. The time to maximize the return for that trade is this off-season
So that's what you are trying to accomplish and what is drives the intent to trade him.
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Are you sure the bolded is correct Jiri?
If being high up in Pronman's rankings every year is important to you, then yes, your statement is 100% correct and I also agree with the rest of your post.
However, what really is the most important thing? Winning the cup, no? Keeping that goal in mind should allow you to see that ensuring asset retention really doesn't matter at all.
Look, the Flames are losing Hamonic for absolutely nothing most likely. They are also going to most likely lose Brodie - which stings a LOT more since I think he has a lot more value both to the team itself, and in terms of trade value.
Plus, every season this organization seems intent on 'supplementing' with guys like Fatenberg, Gustafsson and Forbort, instead of allowing your own players to gain that experience and actually develop - like Kylington and Yelesin. Heck, the whole Kulak history that I think Granteed (or was it someone else?) posted was eye-opening in terms of how much asset value was lost subsequently simply because the Flames didn't retain Kulak and allow him the opportunity to grow his game here.
Now in terms of Gaudreau - sure, I have no problems of moving him in a package that helps now. Take a look at the other contracts on the roster, and the best time to win really is now. Tkachuk is also up after 2 more seasons. Giordano is slowing down, and he will also probably be gone. Dube is on a ELC. Backlund is going to be slowing down.
Trading one of the support beams for futures makes absolutely no organizational sense. You are either rebuilding, or you are competing. You can't do both well. It will just prolong your stay in the desert. If you feel you can, then great, there is no point in trying to convince one another.
I did, however, not miss the point about retaining asset value. It just isn't the most important thing. I think the Flames would be wise to do a rebuild now to maximize their assets, or they should go all-in for the next 2 seasons. I am tired of this desert.