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Calgary4LIfe · 09-01-2020, 02:00 PM

Klimchuk, Poirier, Agostino, Hanowski, Cundari and Berra. Ignoring trades bringing in first round talents onto the Flames - both to and from the Flames - Lazar, Jankowski, Shinkaruk, Baertschi, Erixon, Nemisz, Rychel.

Looking at that 'strongest draft since 2003', makes you think:
3 Drouin
7 Nurse
8 Ristolainen
10 Nichushkin
11 Morin
17 Lazar
19 Rychel
21 Gauthier
22 Poirier
24 Shinkaruk
25 McCarron
28 Klimchuk

Most of this list is outright busts or disappointments. You can argue that Drouin is coming around. You can argue that Nurse is still a decent piece, as is Ristolainen. Point is that nobody on this list can be considered a 'core player'. Some are ok support players, and they vary in usefulness to outright busts. This was an 'exceptional draft', but it still produced a lot of busts.

Point I am making is that the Flames have a legitimate exceptional talent in Gaudreau. I also do think that the Flames drafting has been improved and is among the best in the NHL - if you argue against that point, then you haven't been paying attention to what the Flames have been doing especially as compared to the rest of the league in general. There are still better drafting teams in the league, but Calgary is definitely among the best in the league in that regard.

However, what is the intent on trading Gaudreau? What are you trying to accomplish here? There are only 2 possibilities to me:

1) You want to win now and feel that Gaudreau is not part of the solution.
2) You want to blow it up.

2 is easy, and I am fully on board with this - start trading your assets for futures, and try and draft a completely new core. With Covid playing havoc on the economy, and with the implications this has on both the bottom lines of teams and in how many games are actually going to be played between now and... whenever - this isn't a terrible place to start. Also, a rebuild now will coincide nicely with a new arena - Flames should start being a competitive team by when the new arena is completed. So you have both a bit of savings for the owners to ride this pandemic out a bit, as well as making it a bit less painless on the fans since there probably won't be as much hockey to be upset about losing. Doubt it happens, but I am ok with this.

Back to #1 - winning now. I am also on-board with this. I fully and completely 100% support doing this as well. I believe that this team is better and more talented than what it has accomplished and what it is made out to be. I also think that Gaudreau is and should remain part of the solution. He is a world-class talent, and though he may or may not be able to produce 5on5 in the playoffs, he is still a dangerous player out there that other teams are required to pay extra close attention to, and this makes room for other players. Plus, he still produces on the PP - last time I checked, a PP goal was worth just as much on the scoreboard as a 5on5 goal in terms of winning.

Fine, so you think Gaudreau is not part of the solution. I won't argue with you. Have at it. Trade him. Go and take a look at the first part of this post, however, and I think the wrong solution is to trade him with an emphasis on 1st round picks and 'good' (but not blue-chip) prospects. It is a TERRIBLE mistake to think of it as 'restocking the cupboards'. The team is not in a position to restock the cupboards in this manner. You simply can't count on drafting someone to step up into the lineup with this current core in the next few years, and if it happens, it likely won't be a player of significance.

Don't rebuild while trying to win. You don't throw assets away like trading first round picks on rentals when this team hasn't shown they are close, but you don't sell players and try to compete either. That's a fool's errand. You keep stocking the cupboards with your own draft picks as best as you can so you can keep the window open as much as possible, and give yourself the flexibility to make moves during the seasons that you are actually competing in - as actual contenders.

If you can sign Hall and keep Gaudreau - do it. If you can trade Gaudreau for blue-chip prospects that are really ready to step into the league this upcoming season - then fine. If you can trade Gaudreau for impact top 6 players that are younger and less proven, then fine. You balance those trades according demanding more in return, or sending more the other way as well, but keep a team that is supposedly 'contending' now.

Trade him for futures like picks and less established prospects, but you better then be using them as currency and using them to buy players from other teams that have given up on contending and are becoming sellers.

Don't try to sell and compete at the same time. Draft as best as you can always, but there is a very low chance that a team is going to be able to draft as well as a Gaudreau in the 2nd half of the 1st round, and the averages show that there are many players that just get a sniff of the NHL and not much more (and often they get that sniff only because they are 1st round picks and teams want them to succeed so bad just for the optics).

Don't restock if you are trying to compete. Sell and do a proper rebuild if you want to restock. Compete and try to make the Calgary Flames - not the Stockton Heat, or just your organizational ranking among the various outlets that rank futures. If you don't think this core can win, then rebuild. I still think it can - Gaudreau included - but it needs work.

What work is that?

For me, it starts with the goalie. Is Talbot/Rittich enough to win with? I don't know. I think it is enough to not lose games outright with. It is 'fine', but I would like to see an upgrade somehow.

The biggest question mark to me is coaching. Coaching is suspect to me.

Why? On a team with Giordano, Brodie, Hanifin, Andersson, Gustafsson, Kylington and Valimaki, supplemented with guys like Gaudreau, Bennett, Mangiapane, Backlund, Lindholm - this SHOULD be a fast transitioning team. Fix the transition. We had Gulutzan kill this team's 'danger factor' for 2 straight years, and Peters fixed it right away. Then he couldn't figure out how to tighten defence up in the playoffs (or rather, he couldn't figure out how to contain MacKinnon in the slightest, and how to defend against the 4 on Gaudreau play).

Get a competent coach that can use the horses that the Flames have on the backend, and make other teams have to actually work hard to defend the Flames. They aren't working hard. Flames give them all the time to set-up in their own zone, and enter the zone without causing much in the way of confusion, and thus less defensive zone breakdowns for the other team, and thus less effective shots, regardless of where they happen to be coming from.

If the Flames want to retain Ward as a head coach - that's fine. Give him the pieces to make it work then.

He is not going to utilize a quick transition. That's fine. It isn't the only way to win, but let's then make some swaps on defence and bring in more defensive-oriented defencemen who may not be the greatest at making passes and exiting the zone. That's not their job any longer anyway, so it doesn't really matter. They only have to make 5 foot passes to the forward circling back to retrieve the puck.

Out is: Giordano, Brodie (which seems likely won't be re-signed, unfortunately), Hanifin, Andersson, Kylington, Gustafsson, Valimaki (though Kylington and Valimaki are cheaper deals, so might as well keep them). Forbort gets re-signed. Those defencemen should be used to acquire replacement cheap but defensively effective defencemen, and then forwards to supplement the system. Big strong forwards with some footspeed.

Ok, maybe my post is a bit of an exaggeration on what the Flames should do, but hopefully you see what point I am trying to illustrate here.

Don't do any moves until you figure out coaching.

Make moves after the new (or existing) coach figures out what he wants to do, and make trades trying to make it work - for the upcoming season!

Do not trade Gaudreau (or any other core player) for futures unless you are going to use them as currency. Keep your own draft picks and use those to supplement your organization. Don't take away from the team now to try and win tomorrow.

You can easily end up getting an 'Iginla like return'. 2 firsts, Frost and something else for Gaudreau? Sure, if you are going to repackage everything for another player from somewhere else, and plan on signing Hall. Go for it. That's a great deal. If you are going to roll the dice on getting players to help you compete 2-5 years from now - at best - then what really is the point of that?

Rebuild or compete. Don't do either halfway. That's how you end up mediocre at both.

09-01-2020, 02:00 PM	#4193
Calgary4LIfe Franchise Player Join Date: Jun 2010 Exp:	Klimchuk, Poirier, Agostino, Hanowski, Cundari and Berra. Ignoring trades bringing in first round talents onto the Flames - both to and from the Flames - Lazar, Jankowski, Shinkaruk, Baertschi, Erixon, Nemisz, Rychel. Looking at that 'strongest draft since 2003', makes you think: 3 Drouin 7 Nurse 8 Ristolainen 10 Nichushkin 11 Morin 17 Lazar 19 Rychel 21 Gauthier 22 Poirier 24 Shinkaruk 25 McCarron 28 Klimchuk Most of this list is outright busts or disappointments. You can argue that Drouin is coming around. You can argue that Nurse is still a decent piece, as is Ristolainen. Point is that nobody on this list can be considered a 'core player'. Some are ok support players, and they vary in usefulness to outright busts. This was an 'exceptional draft', but it still produced a lot of busts. Point I am making is that the Flames have a legitimate exceptional talent in Gaudreau. I also do think that the Flames drafting has been improved and is among the best in the NHL - if you argue against that point, then you haven't been paying attention to what the Flames have been doing especially as compared to the rest of the league in general. There are still better drafting teams in the league, but Calgary is definitely among the best in the league in that regard. However, what is the intent on trading Gaudreau? What are you trying to accomplish here? There are only 2 possibilities to me: 1) You want to win now and feel that Gaudreau is not part of the solution. 2) You want to blow it up. 2 is easy, and I am fully on board with this - start trading your assets for futures, and try and draft a completely new core. With Covid playing havoc on the economy, and with the implications this has on both the bottom lines of teams and in how many games are actually going to be played between now and... whenever - this isn't a terrible place to start. Also, a rebuild now will coincide nicely with a new arena - Flames should start being a competitive team by when the new arena is completed. So you have both a bit of savings for the owners to ride this pandemic out a bit, as well as making it a bit less painless on the fans since there probably won't be as much hockey to be upset about losing. Doubt it happens, but I am ok with this. Back to #1 - winning now. I am also on-board with this. I fully and completely 100% support doing this as well. I believe that this team is better and more talented than what it has accomplished and what it is made out to be. I also think that Gaudreau is and should remain part of the solution. He is a world-class talent, and though he may or may not be able to produce 5on5 in the playoffs, he is still a dangerous player out there that other teams are required to pay extra close attention to, and this makes room for other players. Plus, he still produces on the PP - last time I checked, a PP goal was worth just as much on the scoreboard as a 5on5 goal in terms of winning. Fine, so you think Gaudreau is not part of the solution. I won't argue with you. Have at it. Trade him. Go and take a look at the first part of this post, however, and I think the wrong solution is to trade him with an emphasis on 1st round picks and 'good' (but not blue-chip) prospects. It is a TERRIBLE mistake to think of it as 'restocking the cupboards'. The team is not in a position to restock the cupboards in this manner. You simply can't count on drafting someone to step up into the lineup with this current core in the next few years, and if it happens, it likely won't be a player of significance. Don't rebuild while trying to win. You don't throw assets away like trading first round picks on rentals when this team hasn't shown they are close, but you don't sell players and try to compete either. That's a fool's errand. You keep stocking the cupboards with your own draft picks as best as you can so you can keep the window open as much as possible, and give yourself the flexibility to make moves during the seasons that you are actually competing in - as actual contenders. If you can sign Hall and keep Gaudreau - do it. If you can trade Gaudreau for blue-chip prospects that are really ready to step into the league this upcoming season - then fine. If you can trade Gaudreau for impact top 6 players that are younger and less proven, then fine. You balance those trades according demanding more in return, or sending more the other way as well, but keep a team that is supposedly 'contending' now. Trade him for futures like picks and less established prospects, but you better then be using them as currency and using them to buy players from other teams that have given up on contending and are becoming sellers. Don't try to sell and compete at the same time. Draft as best as you can always, but there is a very low chance that a team is going to be able to draft as well as a Gaudreau in the 2nd half of the 1st round, and the averages show that there are many players that just get a sniff of the NHL and not much more (and often they get that sniff only because they are 1st round picks and teams want them to succeed so bad just for the optics). Don't restock if you are trying to compete. Sell and do a proper rebuild if you want to restock. Compete and try to make the Calgary Flames - not the Stockton Heat, or just your organizational ranking among the various outlets that rank futures. If you don't think this core can win, then rebuild. I still think it can - Gaudreau included - but it needs work. What work is that? For me, it starts with the goalie. Is Talbot/Rittich enough to win with? I don't know. I think it is enough to not lose games outright with. It is 'fine', but I would like to see an upgrade somehow. The biggest question mark to me is coaching. Coaching is suspect to me. Why? On a team with Giordano, Brodie, Hanifin, Andersson, Gustafsson, Kylington and Valimaki, supplemented with guys like Gaudreau, Bennett, Mangiapane, Backlund, Lindholm - this SHOULD be a fast transitioning team. Fix the transition. We had Gulutzan kill this team's 'danger factor' for 2 straight years, and Peters fixed it right away. Then he couldn't figure out how to tighten defence up in the playoffs (or rather, he couldn't figure out how to contain MacKinnon in the slightest, and how to defend against the 4 on Gaudreau play). Get a competent coach that can use the horses that the Flames have on the backend, and make other teams have to actually work hard to defend the Flames. They aren't working hard. Flames give them all the time to set-up in their own zone, and enter the zone without causing much in the way of confusion, and thus less defensive zone breakdowns for the other team, and thus less effective shots, regardless of where they happen to be coming from. If the Flames want to retain Ward as a head coach - that's fine. Give him the pieces to make it work then. He is not going to utilize a quick transition. That's fine. It isn't the only way to win, but let's then make some swaps on defence and bring in more defensive-oriented defencemen who may not be the greatest at making passes and exiting the zone. That's not their job any longer anyway, so it doesn't really matter. They only have to make 5 foot passes to the forward circling back to retrieve the puck. Out is: Giordano, Brodie (which seems likely won't be re-signed, unfortunately), Hanifin, Andersson, Kylington, Gustafsson, Valimaki (though Kylington and Valimaki are cheaper deals, so might as well keep them). Forbort gets re-signed. Those defencemen should be used to acquire replacement cheap but defensively effective defencemen, and then forwards to supplement the system. Big strong forwards with some footspeed. Ok, maybe my post is a bit of an exaggeration on what the Flames should do, but hopefully you see what point I am trying to illustrate here. Don't do any moves until you figure out coaching. Make moves after the new (or existing) coach figures out what he wants to do, and make trades trying to make it work - for the upcoming season! Do not trade Gaudreau (or any other core player) for futures unless you are going to use them as currency. Keep your own draft picks and use those to supplement your organization. Don't take away from the team now to try and win tomorrow. You can easily end up getting an 'Iginla like return'. 2 firsts, Frost and something else for Gaudreau? Sure, if you are going to repackage everything for another player from somewhere else, and plan on signing Hall. Go for it. That's a great deal. If you are going to roll the dice on getting players to help you compete 2-5 years from now - at best - then what really is the point of that? Rebuild or compete. Don't do either halfway. That's how you end up mediocre at both.