Quote:
Originally Posted by bubbsy
To get high end players, flames need to draft those players. As such, until they try scorched earth, I think the odds are against them using the model of the last 30 years to build a perennial contender.
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I think you just need to draft well, whether it's scorched earth or not.
Scorched earth helps because it makes drafting easier but if you go scorched earth and still draft poorly then it doesn't matter (ie. Edmonton, Buffalo, Florida)
Really the key is you need to hit 1-2 picks each draft, if you can do that then you are in good shape. So the way I look at it is you need to hit on your 1st round pick each year, and then get one other contributor from a later round of the draft.
If you can do that you are laughing. And IMO you can even use that first in a trade - as long as it brings back a longer term piece that can make an impact.
I look at a team like Boston who have been in the mix for a while without tanking for early picks, and how they get at least 1 100 game NHLer per draft.
St.Louis is similar
Even a team like Tampa. Sure they went scorched earth in the past to get Stamkos/Hedman, but it was the pieces after going scorched earth that made them a contender. Look at these pieces since 2010 that were drafted outside the top 10 of the draft.
Washington is the same way, they won finally with Ovechkin because they drafted well outside of the top 10 for a 7 year stretch after the tank was over.
These teams are good because they constantly add pieces via the draft. If you can add 1-2 pieces that can contribute to your team at each draft then you are in good shape.
Flames had an okay stretch outside of top 10 picks but a couple of bad drafts hurt them:
2010: Ferland
2011: Baertschi, Granlund, Gaudreau
2012: Jankowski, Kulak
2013: -
2014: -
2015: Andersson, Kylington, Mangiapane
2016: Dube, Fox
And drafting poorly perpetuates the cycle. Poor drafts in 2013/2014 means the Flames didn't have the pieces coming up to support the guys they did hit on (Gaudreau, Monahan, etc) and it meant moving assets in the 2017/2018 drafts to try to fill those holes with just warm bodies. And it's where the 14/15 season was a curse. Flames weren't ready to push their chips in and should have still been focused on building through the draft, but the 2014/2015 season made them think they were closer than they actually were and they went into "window is open now" mode.
Accumulate picks for expiring / aged out assets, draft well, and IMO it doesn't matter if you go scorched earth or not.