Quote:
Originally Posted by MarchHare
This isn't nearly as complicated as some of you are making it. A vote for a third-party candidate is not the same as a vote for Trump (or Biden), but how damaging it is depends on who they would normally vote for otherwise.
If someone strongly dislikes both parties and never casts their ballot for either the Republicans or the Democrats regardless, their vote is entirely meaningless and doesn't influence the election in any way whatsoever. They may think they're "sending a message" or something, but practically speaking this is no different from not voting at all.
If a progressive Democrat votes for Jill Stein because they think the DNC platform is too centrist or whatever, that's a net swing of -1 votes for Biden.
If a normally-reliable Republican voter dislikes Trump but can't bring himself to vote for a Democrat so they cast their ballot for the Libertarian candidate instead, that's a net swing of -1 vote for Trump.
If a Bernie-or-buster cuts off their nose to spite their face by voting for Trump, that's -1 vote for Biden, +1 vote for Trump, for a net swing of two votes for Trump.
If a Lincoln Project never-Trumper Republican votes for Biden, that's -1 vote for Trump, +1 vote for Biden, for a net swing of two votes for Biden.
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Also, this stuff only really matters in swing states. If some pissed off progressive in California wants to vote Green, it really doesn't matter.
Jill Stein only got 1% of the vote last time, whereas Gary Johnson got 4%. I suspect it'll be similar numbers this time, which suggests the third-party votes probably hurt Trump more than the Biden.