Quote:
Originally Posted by Itse
No, you're not going deeper. You're going shallower, because again, you're ignoring goals. A team that scores more than their opponent is not getting outplayed.
Because let me point out that obvious: your argument would be exactly the same no matter how good or bad the Jets were at scoring and not getting scored on. Goals literally have no place in your argument in how good or bad a team is 5-on-5 which is ridiculous.
Also, you keep repeating that it's all about Hellebuyck, which is objectively clearly just false, because once again the Jets also score goals at a decent pace, and again it's an argument only someone who literally ignores goals could make.
Shots are secondary data. Goals and points are primary data. There's nothing deep about what you're doing, because you're not combining information. You're just ignoring goals in favor of shots and jumping to hyperbolic conclusions.
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xGF is a great stat since it's meant to take out the variation of "luck" for teams that maybe are getting above average shooting/save percentage.
But The one thing advanced stats doesn't always take into consideration are those teams that have truly good goaltending or strong shooters. Teams shooting and save percentage generally does fluctuate year to year, but those teams that actually have above average shooting/goaltending talent will be able to overachieve on their xGF year to year.
It's why a team like the Washington Capitals always seem to outperform their results, they have great shooters who outperform their xGF every year.
Winnipeg is in a similar situation where they have an elite goalie and some great finishers, so they can out perform their xGF%.
Looking at a longer horizon to remove the variability (3 seasons) and the Jets are consistently near the top of save percentage and shooting percentage, and that's something that looking at just xGF% will not tell you.
Winnipeg: 10.2% (4TH), .914 (3rd)
Calgary: 9.3% (17th), .905 (18th)
And that's where the difference in GF vs xGF% for Jets shouldn't be classified as "luck" they've had the talent to consistantly overachieve on their xGF% and that can't be overlooked, especially since this most recent season is even more of a gap than the extended view.
Jets:
GF%: 52.7% (8th)
xGF%: 47.0% (29th)
SH%: 9.59% (15th)
SV%: .913 (5th)
Flames:
GF%: 48.8% (23rd)
xGF%: 50.4% (16th)
SH%: 9.22% (20th)
SV%: .906 (13th)
So Calgary might be able to carry the pace of play and generate more chances based on the xGF%, but the Jets have the advantage in finishing talent & goaltending, and that's a huge equalizer in a series like this.
And the other thing is it's not like the Flames are some type of xGF juggernaut this season. Based on the xGF and their actual GF% the Flames were quite poor before the break this season, so not exactly like they were getting "unlucky" results this season. They've been poor in their own right.