Quote:
Originally Posted by Itse
To me personally, if you really want to argue that a stat is relevant in predicting the outcome of the Flames-Jets series, you really should be looking at "how often does the regular season leader in this stat win their series". However since this would likely require a lot more work, I don't hold it against Bingo that he didn't do that.
(That said, since it wouldn't be THAT much work, if corsi is indeed a relevant indicator of who wins a playoff series, that information should already be available in the internet somewhere.)
|
I'm not going to go into every team but lets look at the last 5 playoffs and the final 4 (All Strengths, xGF%)
18-19:
St.Louis Blues (6th), San Jose (4TH), Boston (8th), Carolina (1st)
17-18:
Washington Capitals (29th), Tampa Bay (3), Winnipeg (16), Vegas (5)
16-17:
Pittsburgh (7th), Ottawa (20th), Anaheim (10th), Nashville (13th)
15-16:
Pittsburgh (1st), Tampa (11th), St.Louis (20th), San Jose (2nd)
14-15: Rangers (14th) , Tampa Bay (10th), Anaheim (13th),
Chicago (8th)
13-14: Montreal (21), New York (5), Chicago(3),
Los Angeles (2nd)
So it does seem to be better to be ranked top 5/10 in the regular season in xGF% if you are hoping to have playoff success.
Washington is the only major outlier that was able to win a cup, and they really changed their game from regular season to playoffs. Going from 46.4% (29th) in the regular season to 52.3% (5th) in the playoffs.