(Wanted to separate the following from the post above to make clear this is a different track from stats talk and not an answer to anyone in particular.)
I've said in this thread it's mostly a mental duel, but thinking more about it, I think this is primarily a coaching duel. Who picks the right tactics and who gets their team mentally in the right place is likely to win the series (unless the goalie battle is too one-sided for anything else to matter).
There's not going to be a lot of time for adjustment. The series is quite possibly being won and lost right now, in the preparation phase.
Paul Maurice is well known to be painfully average, and that makes this series very winnable.
Fun fact: did you know that the last time Geoff Ward was a head coach for a team in the playoffs, he guided his team Adler Mannheim to DEL championship, losing only three games in three seven game rounds? He also has two coach of the year awards, one from AHL in 2004 and another from that championship season in DEL in 2015.
Is that a strong indicator of future success? Obviously not. But it's one positive indicator that he could be a pretty good playoff coach. (A negative indicator is the way the Oilers/Flames head to head season series went from Flames dominance to Oilers dominance as the season progressed.)
The more I watch hockey, the more convinced I've become that playoff coaching is very different from regular season coaching, and that coaching is an underrated issue when it comes to playoff success. The regular season is big data stuff, it's all about the averages. Do what usually works, and you're likely to end up high in the standings.
In the playoffs, all that matters is what works against the one team you're trying to beat in a series. You need to have a good eye for tactical analysis and individual player skills to really make the most of what you have, and to take advantage of the weaknesses the other team has.
In the playoffs the moment-to-moment coaching becomes extremely important. When emotions are high and the pressure is high, you have to find ways to turn all that into motivation and momentum instead of nervousness, or all the skill in the world will not save you. The coaching staff needs to be constantly on their toes, looking out for players that get too high or too low, while also looking for good matchups and avoiding bad ones. Every shift becomes important and every player becomes important. You can't rely on what usually works, you have to be able to see the details to make the right choices for each moment.
This summer, with the bubble, the coaches likely have the players attention in a way they can usually only dream of, which is likely to highlight the importance of the coaching staff... and the general atmosphere/chemistry of the team.
I'm also hoping that the bubble helps keep the Canadian fan/media pressure cooker off the players backs. Of course this would benefit the Flames and Jets equally, but should the Flames win, it might make things easier for the actual playoffs.
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