Quote:
Originally Posted by Jiri Hrdina
Based on one. A lot of the advanced metrics available should that he has easier match-ups and doesn't perform at the same level as the other two nominees.
What's your argument based on?
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First, philosophically, you need to be the best all around forward to win this thing, not just the best defensive forward. It would be silly to suggest, at this point, the way the award has been handed out forever, that offense doesn't matter. For me, to be that guy, you need to be your team's workhorse forward to qualify. Bergeron doesn't fit that requirement, as he's not even close to 20 minutes a night and isn't even close to Marchand in that regard, so it's down to O'Reilly and Couturier. And I guess you could argue that in O'Reilly's case, it is sort of close, because he is great defensively. But he was slightly better defensively based on the numbers I've been looking at (which are all Evolving Hockey metrics), whereas when you look at total two-way play-driving ability, Couturier more than makes up the difference, particularly given the team he plays on.
As far as miscellaneous feathers in the cap go, Couturier is also ahead in producing offense at 5 on 5, which as noted, does actually matter for this thing. Moreover, I don't generally put a huge amount of stock in faceoffs because their importance is overstated, but it is usually a consideration for this award - being able to rely on a guy to win a key draw in his own end in crunch time. Couturier won 60% of his faceoffs. That's fairly obscene.
What is your basis for the statement that he has easier match-ups and doesn't perform at the same level? Because the numbers I'm looking at don't back that up at all.