Yeah, there are a lot of uncertainties about how it plays out if he refuses to leave. He'd be counting on the loyalty of a lot of people. His appointees might remain loyal to him, but is that true of the rank-and-file of departments and agencies? The Joint Chiefs of Staff? The Unified Command of the military? I tend to think that the military leadership (below the DoD but at the top of the uniformed military) would respect the result of a clear election. And if the military signalled their support, than most agencies would likely follow suit. (If the military leadership was divided or supported Trump, or asked the supreme court for guidance, then all bets are off).
Of any department, it seems most likely that he's able to keep the DHS loyal to him, and that might create the spectacle of unidentified DHS troops like those we're seeing in Portland standing guard outside the White House. Military storming the White House in that setting might be the start of actual civil war, and would likely be a last resort. A Biden government that had buy-in from the military and most other agencies (plus congress) could likely start governing even without physically occupying the White House. In the meantime, maybe they try to simply shut down the White House: blockade it, stop any deliveries to it, cut off power, etc. Trump would have a pretty limited tolerance for discomfort.
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