Quote:
Originally Posted by GGG
Polls do not assume 100% turnout.
Polls in general will use either a likely voter model, a registered voter model, or the general population model. You would need to look at the specific poll you are talking about to determine which model is being used.
I believe that most of the major pollsters use likely voter at this stage.
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Agreed that this is a really important consideration, however at this point we're still at mostly Registered Voter polls, especially amongst high-quality pollsters; a lot of pollsters don't like trying to sample for likely voters far out from the election, because it's simply harder to pick up accurately the further out you are from an election. By late summer these pollsters will start switching to LV polls.
(On 538, I see only 2 pollsters that are rated B or higher and have screened for LVs in the last month: Hart Research Associates, and Optimus).