I don't want to look through this whole thread but Dom over at The Athletic posted his odds of the play-ins last month and I just saw it now.
He has Calgary at 59% to win the series over Winnipeg. He also has Calgary's chances of winning the cup at 1% (TBL are the favourites at 24%).
The projections are based on team performance metrics, team health and playoff path run through a simulation 50,000 times.
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