So if I were the GMs going to arbitration, these are the arguments I would make.
Brad Treliving
This one is simple. Straight up pro-rate the stats, we're doing it for bonuses the precedent is set. Neal was on pace for 22.8 goals, while Lucic was on pace for 9.4. Therefor the pick should transfer to the Flames.
Ken Holland
This is more complicated, the game has its ebbs and flows to a season and thus players can be streaky, with prolonged hot streaks and even more pronounced slumps and Neal has a history of being an extremely streaky player. As such, there are always going to be stretches that are outliers that make a players production look stronger than it actually is. Neal had a wonderful start, but as the season progressed, Neal's hot streak dissipated; from December 1 to the end of the season Neal has only score 5 goals in 28 games, a pace that would have seen him score score fewer than 2 goals over the final 11 games the Oilers had remaining. There is precedent for Neal's having extremely cold slumps, as from the all-star break in 2018, up until he was traded to the Oilers he's only scored 10 goals in 86 games, also a pace that would have seen him score fewer than 2 goals over the final 11 games. And with Neal no longer seeing power play time, it seems more likely that Neal's October and November stats were the outliers since the 2018 all-star game.
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