Quote:
Originally Posted by edslunch
The death rate is very low relative to the number of cases, I wonder what’s going on:
- virus is losing it virility
- younger patients
- catching more asymptotic people
- better treatments
- cooking the books
- ....
If the hospitals start overflowing the number will ramp up but it’s currently very low compared to the recent sustained positive test rate.
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It's many things
1) Newer therapies will increase survival rates
2) younger patients on average, though the average age in the Florida cases is older than the New York one, so I don't think that's it
3) Lag time. This is the big one. The average length of stay in hospital is close to 14 days, with time to death being 14 days from being admitted and 5-7 days from catching it to being admitted. Because of this deaths will lag positive tests by 2 to 3 weeks depending on when the positive tests were administered and received.
We don't know yet what the death rates will be from current infections as there hasn't been enough time elapsed. It will almost assuredly be lower than New York for the following reasons:
1) Testing was constrained to severely ill in New York due to lack of test availability, so a lot of the positive tests were for those already 1, 2, 3 weeks into illness and admitted to hospital. It's also estimated that 20% of New York was infected, so the lag been tests and deaths was shorter. There were many times more infected and for much longer than testing would suggest.
2) We have better therapies. Remdesivir and dexamethasone will save lives that weren't saved in New York.
3) Hospital capacity had been able to ramp up, so a higher percentage of people will be able to access care than in New York. New York had a lot of people die at home without care