I think one big thing that keeps Trump from dropping out (at least before the convention) is this: the only thing that he would hate more than losing to Biden, would be Republicans choosing a never-Trumper like Romney or Kasich. That would be a rejection of Trumpism within the GOP. I could see him trying to make a deal with the GOP establishment that he steps down if he's able to choose his replacement, but I can't see him proposing someone who'd be electable... it would be someone ideologically similar but without the cult of personality.
And that's not something the GOP establishment could promise anyway (at least before the convention), as it would go to an open convention and there'd be a long list of candidates who see this as a low-pressure opportunity to pitch a 2024 trial balloon, and others who just see it as a chance to push their own media brand. If Trump didn't announce he was resigning until after the convention, that would create the potential for him and the RNC to hand-pick his successor, but again I can't see them agreeing on a candidate.
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