0-5% over the bonus pool is a 75% tax on the amount over the threshold. 5-10% is 100% tax and a first round pick. I can't see the Jays giving up another first round pick to sign him as good as Martin.
I think while yes you can argue the risk isn't huge for him to back to into the draft next year I think you could easily counter with what is the upside? You sit out the year and delay the clock on everything for a year for what another 750k-1 million? Is that worth it?
I think Boras will want the Jays to pay the tax and that will be the sticking point but I can't see Boras pushing it further than that. I agree it will likely take a while to get this done.
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