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Originally Posted by Monahammer
There have been some studies over the last few days about how immunity (especially in cases with no symptoms) appears to only be effective for a few months at most. https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.the...dies-67650/amp
Sars and mers antibodies last typically around a year at least. Bad news for vaccines imo as we would have to keep developing new vaccines for mutated strains very quickly. |
And both of those are also from the corona virus family.
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The goal, at least in the U.S., is to have a vaccine ready for use in some fashion by the end of the year, or early next. Doing so would be a scientific feat with few parallels. No vaccine has ever been developed so quickly, never mind manufactured for the world.
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That would be great and quite unprecedented. Just for argument sake, lets say they have a vaccine figured out by January 1.
Now, how long will it take to develop and produce billions of doses? 2 months? 3? 6?
So now you've produced all you will need...lets get into the logistics of distribution. Every country will have to give it a stamp of approval from their governments drug agency. This will go quickly in many places but not all. Some will require proper peer reviewed and human tested results. Once that's done, you now have to get the millions/billions of doses into your country, then into your thousands of cities to the pharmacies and clinics etc.
THEN you have to get the vaccine into each and every person who chooses to get one, which will be a monumental task.....and will take weeks if not months.
Being liberal with the timeline, Im guessing at best we are looking at a full year before there is enough vaccine in the general public to allow for mass gatherings again. That's IF all goes well in the initial stages of testing and the scientific community sees the vaccines as being effective and without side effects more detrimental than no vaccine at all. This alone will take months.
So learning to live with it in the meantime is really all that one can expect and that is in every industry and occupation everywhere, including pro sports. Thats why there is so much effort by the NHL to get this season finished, because the next one simply wont happen at all without herd immunity so there can be large gatherings again.
Unless both owners and players are willing to play for HRR that is derived almost exclusively from TV revenue and maybe jersey sales....say goodbye to the sport for a long long time. Thats earning time players AND teams both lose out on. If they choose to do so, great but I wouldnt count on it from either side.
The complications and consequences of not playing are just as real and deep as trying to complete this season. So saying "just cancel it" without going through the monumental efforts they are doing is just way to simplistic.