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Originally Posted by Suave
Yes, if we want province wide boom times back then gas pricing would be key. More drilling and completions rigs, pipelines and facilities work required with gas, plus its spread around the province and not mainly concentrated in Fort Mac.
Main problem again is pricing, there is too much gas accessible at a low price point. Just think of all the gas being flared in places like Texas that will become economic to tie-in as the price rises. I think LNG pricing long term is on a downward trend. Right now it isn't that there's not enough gas to meet demand just that the supply is in the wrong places. So as more LNG export terminals around the world are built, top end pricing is going to be reduced. Then you are just hoping for really cold or really hot weather to stimulate demand and take advantage of price spikes.
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Agree on the benefits of gas being more widespread and it's a major plus, it would give relief to hard hit places like GP FSJ Drayton Valley.
LNG pricing is definitely challenged right now, and could be for a while although I do think long term natural gas market share will increase and consequently prices will rise later on. I'm no expert on the gas market, but I think broadly with the advent of sea-borne LNG we're witnessing the transformation from what was a very fractured market to a more fluid global market like oil is now. The countries that were smart enough to seize LNG early (Australia, Qatar, USA, definitely not Canada) were able to get $12/mcf in Asia. As more LNG came on I think that's dropped to like $8 now. As the world gas prices get more fluid and there's less of a differential from $8 tidewater gas to $1.50 land gas that our producers get I'd imagine those prices will meet in the middle for everyone. Even if that works out to $4 and stays there for a while that's still a massive improvement on what companies are getting now. It's not the boom that early LNG would have been but it's still a drastic improvement from what we have now because it's honestly hard to get much worse. The Montney is already somewhat economic at current prices, an improvement brings a new drilling boom and US shale like activity.